Throughout the campaign, we have heard about how Senator John McCain performs during town hall meetings, using the forum to project an image that makes him accessible, believable, and presidential.In order to get the Straight Talk Express moving quickly back on the right track towards the White House, he is going to have to excel this evening.
Recent polls are showing that the presidency is slipping away from the McCain-Palin ticket. Unfortunately, some of the factors for this development are out of Senator McCain's control. For example, the recent economic crisis has tilted the scales of this election towards not only Senator Barack Obama, but towards all Democrats running for federal office at this time.
The pall of the Bush Administration may be a blemish against the Republican brand for a good while, time that Senator McCain just does not have. ...
He also does not have the time to deal with the Sarah Palin issue appropriately, so he will have to deal with her presence on the ticket as best as possible. Instead of the governor from Alaska bringing a fresh, exciting perspective and presence to the ticket for Republicans and undecided voters, the Palin Effect invokes very different responses from different segments of the electorate.
For conservatives, she is the Republican Obama, a relatively-unknown young politician whose rise to the top is one that has garnered excitement within the base due to her personality and traditional right-wing values. For others (in an increasing fashion), she is an unprepared second-choice candidate that is in over her head and, as a result, is best suited to play the role of attack dog since she has failed to install the confidence needed in a vice presidential candidate. Of course, some of Arizona senator's actions have not endeared him to the undecided voting bloc, either. Although Senator McCain fared well during the first presidential debate on the September 26, nuisances such as McCain's failure to address Obama directly did not play well on television. Senator McCain came across as unnecessarily adversarial, and when coupled with the latest GOP negative attack tactics against the Obama-Biden ticket, the McCain brand risks souring the undecided voter base against it.
These factors would seem to make a McCain victory in November close to impossible, but this is not the case – yet.
Tonight's second debate will play a major factor in determining Senator McCain's election fate this fall. He does come into the debate with some glimmers of hope to utilize as he attempts to cut into the lead that Senator Obama has created over the past few weeks.
For starts, Governor Palin's performance Thursday evening during the vice presidential debate allowed her not only to salvage her own credibility among many within the GOP and conservative base, but it also provided a small opportunity for the McCain campaign to turn the page on intense focus on Palin's qualifications.
This gives Senator McCain a chance to highlight the experience gap between Senator Obama and himself. As well, with the Palin-Biden debate over, it would appear that the Palin Bounce is over: those that have become invigorated as a result of her presence on the ticket will remain that way as this point while those that reject Palin as a VP candidate will not be swayed away from that viewpoint.
With the passage of the bailout legislation, Senator McCain may have an opportunity to have the focus of the presidential discussion become more encompassing, including an in-depth discussion on foreign policy issues. Even the impact of our financial crisis on the global market may allow Senator McCain to use his years of experience in Washington as an advantage over Obama that America should choose. However, foreign policy and national defense are clearly his best bets to gain support.
For example, the recent air violation incident in Iran (depending on which country comments, it was either a business jet without US civilians on-board or a US "Falcon Fighter") threatens to bring back into focus the importance of the president as Commander in Chief. International incidents may work in McCain's favor due to his tenure in the US Senate as his status as retired military personnel. Further, any opportunity to show a break from President Bush's viewpoint or reactions in this realm (such as with Putin during the Georgia-Russia tension this summer) will give Senator McCain another chance to break his tie with the Bush White House, a move he must make (and quickly) if he is going to gain votes from disgruntled undecided voters that constitute the 75% of those polled that disapprove of the president.
The third possible advantage brings us full circle: the town hall forum format that will be used this evening. Senator Barack Obama came across too professorial in the Saddleback Forum on the Presidency, a debate-like event that seems eons ago in the political lifecycle but is the only valid instance that allowed us to contrast the Obama and McCain styles directly aside from the first debate.
If Senator Obama comes across as more professorial and less personable, he will risk alienating the undecided voters in the audience and, quite potentially, a significant portion of undecided voters exactly 4 weeks before Election Day. If McCain is able to use the same demeanor, verbiage, and arguments in Tuesday's debate that he did with Rick Warren – while attacking Obama's policy points and senatorial tenure that is littered with strong liberal partisanship – he will be able to put a dent into the Obama that, with persistence, can be overcome.
Overcoming that lead, however, starts with a performance this evening that trumps Barack Obama in the quest to not only win the debate, but to clearly look more presidential as well.
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Lenny McAllister is the Political Guru for Fox News - Charlotte and blogs the Republican side of the election for BlackVoices. He is a frequent contributor to The Charlotte Post and The North Carolina Conservative.
